Measure 11 Financial Impact

CRIME VICTIMS UNITED


This document is the Crime Victims United analysis of the direct cost to state and local government of Measure 11. It is based on the Measure 94 fiscal impact statement written by a committee consisting of the Secretary of State, State Treasurer, head of the Department of Administrative Services, and head of the Department of Revenue.

Summary

For the 2001-2002 budget year, Measure 11 will cost approximately $47.8 million. This amounts to $14.94 for each Oregonian.

The original estimate in the 1994 voter's pamphlet argument can be projected to $171 million per year.

The actual cost has turned out to be well less than 1/3 of the original estimate.

Detailed Analysis

In 1994, the fiscal impact committee made an estimate of the financial impact of Measure 11. They did this without the benefit of experience with minimum mandatory sentencing and came up with a projected cost for the year 2000 of approximately $193 million. This includes $92 million for prison construction and $101 million for operating expenses.

The year 2000 committee was asked to estimate the savings that would accrue if Measure 11 is repealed by Measure 94. They were able to do this with the benefit of five years experience. The savings if Measure 11 is repealed by Measure 94 is a good estimate of the cost of Measure 11 if it is not repealed.

It is rather difficult to compare the 1994 estimate with the 2000 estimate because they are expressed in different terms. Here is a summary of the raw numbers presented in 1994 and 2000. In reading these figures, keep in mind that the budget year runs from July 1 to the following June 30.

The numbers are expressed in terms of the cost of Measure 11. Negative numbers represent savings that accrue from Measure 11.

1994 Numbers

Prison construction:

$461.8 million over 5 years

Operating costs:

$101.6 million by the 2000-2001 budget year

Increased indigent defense cost:

$.44 million per year

2000 Numbers

Adult and juvenile close custody costs:

$35.9 million in 2001-2002 (the first full year considered)

$65.1 million in 2009-2010

Bond repayment:

$153.6 million between 2000 and 2010

Community corrections payments:

-$.9 million in 2000-2001

-$3 million in 2001-2002

-$1.5 million in 2009-2010

Community supervision of youth:

-$.2 million in 2000-2001

-$.5 million in 2001-2002

-$1.1 million in 2009-2010

The 2000 estimate does not give figures for the budget years from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009.

Analysis of the Numbers

To have an understanding of the fiscal impact of Measure 11, people need an annualized figure. Annualizing the figures also allows us to compare the 2000 estimate, which should be quite accurate since it is based on years of experience, with the 1994 estimate. In order to compare them, we need to project both out to the same year. We have chosen the 2001-2002 budget year.

1994 Annualized Estimate For The 2001-2002 Budget Year

Prison construction:

$69.0 million per year (See note 1)

Operating costs:

$101.6 million per year

Increased indigent defense cost:

$.44 million per year

Total: $171.0 million per year

2000 Annualized Estimate For The 2001-2002 Budget Year

Adult and juvenile close custody costs:

$35.9 million in 2001-2002

Bond repayment:

$153.6 million between 2000 and 2010 = $15.4 million per year

Community corrections payments:

-$3 million in 2001-2002

Community supervision of youth:

-$.5 million in 2001-2002

Total: $47.8 million per year

Ratio of 2000 Estimated Cost to 1994 Estimated Cost:

0.28 (See note 2)

Note 1: The 1994 fiscal impact statement projected a Measure 11 prison population growth of 6085 from 1995 up to (but presumably not including) 2001, or 1014 per year. It projected continued growth of 3010 from 2001 up to (but presumably not including) 2005, or 752 per year. The figure shown for prison construction based on the 1994 estimate was derived by amortizing the entire population growth over the 10 year period covered by the estimate. Here are the calculations:

$461.8 million / 6085 inmates = $75891 per inmate (1995 through 2000)

$75891 * 3010 = $228.4 million (2001 through 2004)

$461.8 million + $228.4 million = $690.2 million (1995 through 2004)

$690.2 million over 10 years = $69.0 million per year

Note 2: The 2000 figures are in terms of inflated dollars relative to the 1994 figures. Consequently, this ratio somewhat understates the decrease in the estimate from 1994 to 2000.

 

 


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